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Intelligence · Trend Analysis

See rising searchesearly.

Search volume, cost per click and competition for the keywords you track are measured every day. Growth is read as a score and spikes arrive as notifications.

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What trend analysis measures in marketing

Trend analysis reads the direction of data over time. In finance that data is a price chart; in marketing it is how much people search for a topic, product or brand.

This screen answers the marketing question: which search is growing, how fast, and is that growth worth anything to you?

Financial trend analysis vs. search trend analysis
Financial trend analysisSearch trend analysis
DataPrices or statement line itemsMonthly search volume, cost per click, competition
QuestionWhere is the price heading?Which topic is gaining interest?
Used byInvestors, finance teamsEcommerce, content and ad teams
OutputBuy, sell or holdProduct, content or ad priority

The trend score comes from five signals

A percentage alone misleads. Going from 200 to 328 searches is the same percentage as going from 74,000 to 121,000, but it is not the same opportunity. So the score weighs growth together with volume, cost and competition.

Signal weights in the trend score
7-day growth35%
30-day growth20%
Search volume20%
Cost-per-click momentum15%
Low competition10%

Weights are read from the product's trend score formula. A signal that cannot be measured is left out and its weight is spread over the rest.

  • Volume is scored on a log scale: the gap between 100 and 1,000 searches counts for more than the gap between 100,000 and 101,000.
  • Rising cost per click shows advertisers putting money behind a keyword; it also means higher cost, so its weight stays low.
  • Competition is scored inversely: lower competition is the better opportunity.
  • A score of 85 or more is labelled very strong, 70 or more strong, 50 or more medium, and anything lower weak.

How tracking works

A keyword's tracking cycle
  1. 1
    Add the keyword

    Enter the keyword, country, language and alert threshold, or switch on a ready-made list.

  2. 2
    Daily reading

    Volume, cost per click and competition are measured and stored every day.

  3. 3
    Change is calculated

    The reading is compared with seven and thirty days earlier.

  4. 4
    Score and status

    The keyword is labelled rising, watch, falling or collecting data.

  5. 5
    Notification

    If the threshold is crossed, the rise or fall lands in the panel.

Statuses a keyword can have
StatusWhen it is givenWhat to do
RisingScore of 70 or more and growth over the last seven daysTreat it as a product or content opportunity
WatchThere is a score but the rising condition is not metKeep tracking and review the threshold
FallingSeven-day change of -10% or worseDo not put new budget behind it
Collecting dataNo growth signal can be calculated yetWait for a few days of readings

Catch a spike as a notification

Each keyword has an alert threshold; if you leave it blank it is 30%. When a new reading moves above or below the last seven-day average by that much, you get a notification in the panel.

  • A rise notification shows the country, the change and the current monthly searches.
  • Falls are reported too; knowing not to tie stock or ad budget to fading demand is worth as much as spotting a rise.
  • Set the threshold per keyword: a higher threshold on a volatile keyword cuts noise.

What to do with a rising keyword

A rising keyword goes one of two ways. If it is a product idea, search for products selling under it in product hunting. If it is a product you want to follow, add it to the product watchlist.

  • You can start without typing keywords. Switch on ready-made lists such as Turkish and global dropshipping, TikTok products, home and living, or beauty and care.
  • To see one topic's demand, competitor ads and opportunity keywords at once, market intelligence is the better fit.
  • To look for product niches with little competition, use the niche radar.
  • To follow news and conversations that affect your brand, agenda signals is a separate screen.

Frequently asked questions

What is trend analysis?

Reading the direction of data over time. In marketing that data is search volume: it shows which topics are gaining or losing interest and sets your product, content or ad priorities.

How do you do trend analysis?

Pick the keyword to follow, measure it regularly and compare with past readings. This screen measures daily on its own, calculates seven- and thirty-day change and turns the result into a score.

How is this different from Google Trends?

Google Trends shows interest on a relative 0-100 scale. Here monthly searches, cost per click and competition are measured together and stored every day for as long as the keyword is tracked.

How is the trend score calculated?

Seven-day growth carries 35%, thirty-day growth 20%, search volume 20%, cost-per-click momentum 15% and low competition 10%. A signal that cannot be measured is left out.

Why is there no score for a keyword I just added?

Growth needs past readings. A new keyword has nothing to compare with, so the screen says collecting data instead of showing zero.

When do I get a notification?

When a new reading moves above or below the last seven-day average by the keyword's threshold. If you leave the threshold blank it is 30%.

Does it tell me when a trend will peak?

No. The screen only shows measured change. Forecasting a peak needs a model, and we do not publish the output of a model we do not have.

Which countries can I track?

You pick the country and language when you add a keyword, and readings follow that country's searches. You can track the same keyword in several countries separately.

Sources

The official documentation behind the technical points on this page:

  1. [1]
    Google Trends Help: Get started with Google Trends

    How search interest is explored by location and time.

  2. [2]
    Google Ads Help: About Keyword Planner forecasts

    Forecasts rest on historical data and can differ from actual results.

Related pages

Be the first to ride the wave.

Use the trend watcher on a paid plan. The full panel is free with no time limit: brand, accounts, reports. Allowance: 10 captions a month, 2 images a month, 1 videos a month, 1 brand, 1 user.